Rosemond Lab

New StoryMap shows how stream temperatures may change with warming in the Southern Appalachians

maps of LTR watershed

This past summer a StoryMap visualizing results of a stream temperature model was published on the UGA River Basin Center website.

Emily Chalfin, a former RBC technician and current Odum graduate student in the Wenger lab, along with doctoral student Phillip Bumpers and Dr. Seth Wenger developed a model to predict temperatures across the Little Tennessee River.

Using data collected by UGA and TU volunteers we developed a statistical stream network model to predict temperatures in streams across the entire watershed upstream of the Lake Fontana inlet. We then forecasted changes in stream temperature based on different scenarios of increased air temperature (+ 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0˚C) and determined changes in thermally suitable habitat for native brook trout (Salvilinus fontinalis).

forested stream
Our study found that many streams like this one will become thermally unsuitable for cold-water fish like brook trout. The Little Tennessee River watershed is at the southern extent of the brook trout range. Much of this habitat will likely become unsuitable for brook trout if they cannot adapt to warmer conditions.

Given our analysis, thermally ideal (<18°C) brook trout habitat is currently found in 3,836 miles of streams in our study area, but that will decrease by 23% if temperatures rise 1°C (2,974 miles) or 91% (341 miles) at 4°C. This project was a part of our NSF-funded stream warming study and included partnerships with Mainspring Conservation Trust and Trout Unlimited.

maps of LTR watershed
We compared current vs future stream temperature across the Little Tennessee River watershed and quantified changes in thermally suitable habitat for brook trout.

Learn more about the project on the RBC website.

Great work, Emily!